Prevalence of Uncertainties in the Arab World

I am a South Asian (Pakistani) journalist, living in the Gulf for last about three decades. I have developed an understanding of the psychology of the Arab masses and the rulers. What I am afraid is that dream of even Egyptian peoples still needs a long time to come true. Much more cries, sobs and blood are required to be offered to ‘Tehreer Square’ for appeasing it. Interim government is still undecided to clean the cobwebs of the depreciated and worn-out dictatorial system. The present military establishment wants to keep its adherence to its benefactor, Hosni Mubarak and still finds the ways to give him some type of protection. The establishment seems more loyal to the stinking and stagnant system. It is not ready to ignore the wishes of the American and Israeli governments. It is a well-known fact that, Tantawi, the man now heading the interim set up has been a good choice of Israel for replacing Hosni Mubarak, since long before the start of the rise of a popular movement against Hosni Mubarak. Power once gained increases lust for itself and a thousand excuses can be invented and links to support can be forged. Perhaps the same is happening there and now Tehreer Square has started to smell it.

Arab masses still fail to guess the level of the conspiracies hatched by the Zionist lobbies in Tel Aviv, Washington, Paris, Berlin and London in favor of the Arab regimes and keeping status-quo unbroken. In Libya, as I can guess the movement for regime change started over optimistically and impulsively, without a proper assessment whether the time is ripe or not. Hesitant attitude of American president Obama and a lost lustre of the France president caused a discouragement for the freedom seekers and it gave strength to Qaddafi. Qaddafi’s unbending gave a positive message to other dictators in Africa and Middle East. In Syria and Yemen the movement is strong but the backing of the mighty ghosts for the arbitrary rulers is much stronger. What an immense bitterness on the tongues of the Israelis and the Syrians might have been about each other but Bashar Al-Asad is much more reliable for Tel Aviv than any new system still in the womb of probability of resulting from the current peoples’ movement. Revolting masses are a danger for Israel and the existing political systems are in its interest of not only the Zionist state but entire western world.

The GCC governments are divided in their stand and policies about what is happening around them. Ali Abdullah Saleh is the choice not only of the Americans but Saudi Arabia too is reluctant to support the popular movement for getting him thrown away. UAE and Qatar are somewhat radical and advance in their stance regarding the recent happenings but they dare not go against the will of Americans.

Bahrain’s case is a bit complicated with sectarianism and Iran’s meddling in its internal matters. There regime change means the Sunni ruling family be overthrown and Iran backed Shia’ regime be brought to the power. So far as Jordan is concerned, king Abdullah is the favorite of all the westerns, and how much unpopular he may be, the western powers will not like him to be vexed.

In the intellectual circles the rise of the popular movements is important thing but the hypocritical demands of the world capitals are connected to the ruling elements. Big powers are not ready to rely about the future permanence of Israel and their own interests on the changed regimes as they are dependent on the present sets up, no matter how much corrupt and heedless to the wishes of their people they are. The existing ruling elites in the Arab world, regardless of their sometime ludicrous roars against Israel, are actually the lions of the American circus, whose teeth of national honor have been carefully removed to make them harmless to Israel. So, the big powers and the Arab leadership are in hope of normalcy, waiting until the revolutionary feelings subside and tsunami of the public anger against the rulers is over.