Post-Asad Period in Syria

{(There comes a day for every rise to see its fall. Al-Asad dynasty in Syria is now on brink of meeting its end. The present rampant in regime's furiously spilling of the blood indicates that they see their reprieve about to be over. A little ago, yes, starting from 2011, images of despotic rulers were shattered into pieces in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Yemen. Though in two of the four countries the religious groups, particularly Muslim Brotherhood, have rose to the power after toppling the dictators, yet the rage of the people against the dictators was everywhere a political issue and not a religious one. 


The people deprived of their freedom, honour, justice and livelihood rose against tyrant and merciless rulers and brought them down to the ground. Whole of the world assumed it a popular revolt by the people to regain their grabbed rights from the dictators. But it is unfortunate that Bashar Al-Asad and his regime is very mischievously making their retinues and unduly favoured elements believe it a mutiny against Alavi dynasty in Syria and inciting the ethnic and sectarian feelings. 


Bashar Al-Asad is successor of his selfish, corrupt and ruthless father late Hafiz Al-Asad with the  same evil ruling practices. Both oppressed the people killing thousands of them who dared to voice up about their sufferings and deprivations. Aggrieved and wronged people had no way to voice up about  corruption and undue favours on the cronies whom they promoted to the high positions of influence giving them free hand to crush the people. 


Though Muslim Brotherhood has been the biggest target for almost whole of Al-Asad Family's ruling period of around 40 years, yet it does not mean that the people of their own sect had never been subject to their brutality. There were Sunnis, including the high ranked religious leaders, who stood in support of Al-Asad dynasty. Injustice was alike done with both the Alavis and the Sunnis. But now when the ship seems to go in sinking the corrupt ruling group is trying to turn the situation into sectarian nature just for gaining the backing of the Alavi Shias.


The revolting forces against Al-Asad are targeting only the supporters of the ruling elite irrespective of their sectarian identity. But now when Al-Asad's disgracefully leaving his 'throne' is a clear-cut fact coming true very soon, he seems to be bent on bringing his Alavi sect on a long war against the Sunni community of the country. 


He has three choices before him. One, to flee to Russia and take asylum there. During the Cold War ere Russia used Al-Asads (both father and the son) as 'unruly child' to vex the American led Western Block. Now Putin, feeling indebted of those days trying to pay off through vetoing the U N O Resolutions meant to slap financial sanctions against the regime.  


Second, his wife and children (who are already out of the country) may want to live in any European country, but Al-Asad is unlikely to make this greatly risky choice for him because sooner or later, after his fall, he has to be called to account for his brutalities and the noose can easily be tightened for his crimes committed against his own people. In Europe he can easily be got for bringing to justice. 


And the third and most probable choice is to go to the Alavi belts of Syria, where both Nuseiri and Droze sects are heavily populated and wage a war against Sunnis to recapture Damascus. 


Apart from their sectarian links Syria has been Iran's only ally in the region. Heavily armed militia organization Hizbullah of Lebanon, has also departed its ways from the wronged people of the authoritatively ruled countries and has chosen to side with the butcher Al-Asad only on sectarian basis.) Munir Ahmed Khalili}

Writer: EMERE USLU (A Columnist of Today's Zaman)

Recent developments indicate that Assad is soon going to be finished in Syria. Many observers expect that in the post-Assad period a bloody clash will take place between Sunni opposition groups and the Alawis, the regime supporters. Given the fact that the Assad family has been dominating Syrian politics for decades and been involved in many killings against Sunnis, there could be clashes between the two communities. However, it is unlikely to expect these clashes will lead to a civil war or ethnic cleansing in Syria. The regime’s propaganda seems to build minority coalitions against the Sunni majority opposition to make the minorities think the Sunnis would kill them once they came to power. If there were a basis for such conflict between the Sunnis and Shiites, we would have seen elements of such conflicts. However, it seems that the opposition groups in Syria target only the regime and their supporters, Sunni or Alawis alike, but they do not target ordinary people due to their Alawi identity. Yet, the Assad regime is apparently preparing some Alawi paramilitary groups for the post-Assad period to turn the conflict into a civil war so that Assad hopes to separate the Alawis from the Sunnis and establish an independent Alawi state in the western part of Syria. In order to understand how the Assad family and the regime elite manipulate basic facts and try to use divisions within the society for their own benefit, one needs to recall the very first arguments of the regime a year ago: It was the Assad regime that told the world that the Sunnis are not the opposition but al-Qaeda, who opposed the regime. Thus, once the regime is toppled, al-Qaeda would control Syria. The regime in Syria is fomenting fear that Israel is trying to associate the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt as a group that has close links to al-Qaeda and other radical groups. Hence, especially in the Western community there was such fear as to whether it was a good idea to support revolutions if, indeed, an al-Qaeda type of regime controlled key states in the Middle East. The Syrian political elite were calculating this fear and hoping to maintain their regime by exploiting a baseless fear among Western political powers. Thus, they first argued that al-Qaeda would establish a base in Syria if the Assad regime is overthrown. Currently, once the West have seen that the Muslim Brotherhood is not a problem and they are working with the West and not promoting radical regimes in the Muslim world, the Syrian political elite have adopted another argument and highlight it: There would be an ethnic/sectarian cleansing toward minorities, including Christians and Alewis once the Assad regime is gone. Just like the first argument, the second argument is wrong and helps serve the interests of the regime. If there were such a danger, we would have seen the oppositions bombing major gathering places in the Alewi-dominated regions of the country. For instance, when there was a danger of sectarian clashes between Sunnis and Shia in Iraq, preparing for the post-US period, targeting Shia pilgrimages and market places deepened the divisions between the two communities. No such attacks took place in Syria. Thus, it is unlikely there would be a sectarian conflict that would lead to a cleansing. And so, unlike many observers, I don’t think major clashes will take place between Sunnis and Alewis in the post-Assad period. However, I would expect to see major clashes in the Kurdish areas of Syria. Unlike other regions, these places have shown some indications of clashes. First, the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) is trying to establish its bases and eliminating oppositions groups. While doing this, the PKK is getting support from the regime. Thus, there is a potential area of confrontation between the PKK and other major Kurdish parties and tribes. In addition, the pro-PKK party in Syria has already declared “democratic autonomy,” a model that Abdullah Ocalan proposed for all Kurdish territories, but other Kurdish groups disagree with this model. Second, Kurds in Syria are preparing to establish an autonomous region. Some Arab nationalists among the opposition groups severely disagree with this idea. Therefore there is a possible chance of confrontation about the future of Kurds in Syria as well. Third, once Turkey sees that the PKK is establishing a base in Syria that would be used to attack against Turkey, Turkish security forces would respond. All in all, in post-Assad Syria, we could see the country regain stability in all parts, but the Kurdish territory is going to be the most difficult area.