Turkish Youth and Protest Rallies

(We try to keep the blog updated with the subjects which really matter to the Muslim Ummah's Faith, moral values, political, social and economic life. Hurricanes of the current situations in any part of the Muslim World can never be ignored, so they are naturally a part of our interest.  We have to keep in mind that dark sabotaging forces in almost all the Muslim countries are in efforts to create unstableness in the Muslim societies and a state of restlessness and agitatedness in the youth. long ago these forces used to be seen holding the banners of leftist ideologies. But after collapse of Soviet Union they were cornered or they had expediently resorted to clandestinity. Now in some Muslim countries, they have surfaced from their ambushes. They seem to be intent on exploiting some states of affairs which are either result of some immaturely planned schemes of the governments of Islamic repute or mischievously created by hidden elements.  In a rapid changing world of economic crisises young generations are in the grip of uncertainties about their secure future. Vulnerability of the youth is a supposed thing or  a reality, but it has become a reason for them to play in hands of the sabotaging forces as an effective instrument for causing agitatedness. In ' The Arab Spring' youth had played a tremendous role to root out decades old depotic rules of the dictators in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Yemen. Now the same youth is being used as a vehicle of the defeated dark elements for vexing the lately established democratic governments. Turkey under the leadership of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and President Abdullah Gul is on a fast track of continuity of justice, freedom, democratic process, political stability and economic progress. Under a minor pretext a chain of demonstrations has started and the leftist elements are out to create huge stir. Youth is once more a tool but unfortunately main purpose of inciting the trouble is not to get something better for young people. Pushing a government with its wise and fruitful schemes into mess is actual target. We take balanced and well reasoned writings for our blog, not wholy in support of Erdogan's governtment, but actually relating to current matters of the Ummah. The article below is of the same nature. It is published with thanks to Turkish English Daily Today's Zaman and the writer of the article, Mr. Abdullah Bozkurt.   Munir Ahmed Khalili)

By: Abdullah Bozkurt

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's unwavering stand against the protest movement that has spread all over the country means he is digging his heels in for a fight with opponents to score politically in the elections next year. He thinks, as the leader of the popular Justice and Development Party (AK Party), which has ruled the country for 11 years, that he can replicate the same victory he delivered in 2007 against the opposition, which was backed by the then-powerful military.

The AK Party successfully mobilized independents, liberals and conservatives alike against the undemocratic coalition that wanted to return the country to a Baathist-type regime. Erdoğan believes he can take on the leading groups among the organizers of the rallies that have been known for years for their staunch opposition to AK Party rule. They are not traditional AK Party supporters, anyway, and compromising with them would not bring any votes to the governing party. The Taksim Platform, a group that waged a campaign against government plans to redevelop Taksim Square, is a typical group and comes from a background of ultra-leftist and marginal unionists. When they presented their demands, which, inter alia, included the suspension of projects like the urgently needed third bridge and a new airport in İstanbul, during a meeting with Deputy Prime Minister Bülent Arınç, the Taksim Platform received significant criticism, even from Istanbul residents. The protestors who took to the streets outside of Istanbul are largely organized by these groups, which include neo-nationalist organizations like the Turkey Youth Union (TGB), the Workers' Party (İP) and the Atatürkist Thought Association (ADD). As Erdoğan pointed out, there were some illicit and illegal groups that have also engaged in protests, including the Revolutionary People's Liberation Party/Front (DHKP/C), a left-wing terrorist group that was behind a suicide bomb attack on the US Embassy in February. The involvement of marginal groups has introduced violence, vandalism, terror and the destruction of property to the protests. Erdoğan feels comfortable that he can deal with them using security measures, a policy that will be backed by an overwhelming majority of the Turkish people. But there is something else that went largely unnoticed in this protest movement. That is the engagement of Turkish youth, which many used to see as apolitical and nihilistic in Turkey. Many young people flocked to the streets in cities across the nation to protest the government on various grounds. It was only natural to get different responses from these young people when asked what they stand for. The only common denominator is the general resentment of the political system and that they loathe the AK Party with the same intensity they have for the opposition parties. They do not have a single ideology or unified platform to rally behind. (The environment seemed to have united this group for a common concern at least in the initial stages of the protest movement.) They definitely lack the leadership that could channel this resentment into a sustainable political organization. There have been attempts to translate the anger of disaffected youths into votes in Turkish politics in the past that had some relative success. The Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) was able to carve out a segment of young voters in 1999 and expanded its percentage of voters to an unusually high 18 percent before dropping to 8 percent in the next elections in 2002. Cem Uzan, a fugitive businessman who was convicted on embezzlement charges for massive fraud, bankrolled a new party called the Genç Parti (Youth Party) and was able to get a significant portion of young people to vote for his party. Uzan's party received 7 percent of the vote nationwide in the 2002 elections but remained under the required 10 percent threshold to enter Parliament. The AK Party was able to get some support from the young, too, especially during the economic boom years, but it now seems that the AK Party's efforts to appeal to young voters remain highly problematic, as was exposed with the recent protest movement. As the income level of the average Turkish family has increased over the years, consumer spending has also soared along with expectations from the government becoming higher than ever before. The Turkish economy, although in much better shape than its peers in Europe, is feeling the pain of world economic woes as well. The growth rate dropped sharply last year to 2.2 percent from 8.8 percent gross domestic product (GDP) expansion in 2011, according to the Turkish Statistics Institute (TurkStat). The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) forecasts a GDP growth of over 3 percent in 2013, in contrast to the optimistic official growth target of 4 percent. Slow growth means less job creation and high unemployment figures for the country. According to TurkStat's announcement in May, Turkish unemployment rose to 10.5 percent in February, while youth unemployment between the ages of 15 and 24 jumped to 20.4 percent from 18.3 percent a year ago. The EU's statistics agency warned in May that a high percentage of youth was out of work in the country's largest metropolitan areas in 2012. Youth unemployment stood at 19.2 percent in İstanbul, 20.2 percent in Ankara and 23.6 percent in the Aegean city of İzmir last year. Considering that urban youth tends to become more activist than rural youth, high unemployment in urban centers poses a real challenge for the government. This was also exacerbated by the rapid urbanization in Turkey. As a result, there is fertile ground for political activism among the young population in Turkey due to economic concerns about job prospects. Coupled with that, there is a growing mistrust of the governing AK Party among young people, which usually associate any sitting government with nepotism and rampant corruption. Since the young lack a grassroots organization and national structure to translate their demands into organized rallies, we usually see spontaneous protests and unscheduled demonstrations. Last week, the overriding theme was about saving trees and protecting the environment, but behind that lie serious grievances and complaints expressed by young people against the government. This also makes it easy for marginal groups, usually well organized with their own networks, to hijack the protest movement energized by the young people and lead it astray from the original purpose. There is a chance for political parties to tap into this young and dynamic bloc. To what extent they will be able to co-opt these voters remains a key issue of study for students of political science. Because of this new twist in Turkish politics, Erdoğan's political calculations may prove to be quite wrong this time around. Moreover, Erdoğan does not seem to have a full grasp of the alienation he has caused in his own voters because of deep resentment, disenfranchisement and disappointment with the government, which is backtracking from pledges it made during its election campaign. Liberals dropped their endorsement of the AK Party and independents are no longer attracted to what the AK Party stands for until a new political outlet emerges to represent their interests. Most importantly, the democratic conservative blocs feel betrayed by Erdoğan who has given up on democratic reforms amid stalled EU talks and the failure to adopt a new constitution. We are no longer living in the conditions of 2007. The nation is facing increased uncertainty in Turkey's neighborhood and feels squeezed between political instability in the south of Turkey and economic uncertainty in the west. The Syrian crisis remains unresolved, and there is a constant threat of a spillover effect. The Iraqi governance crisis has escalated, with sectarian clashes reaching a peak this year and widening the rift between Kurds and the federal government in Baghdad. The Iran file, too, be it the controversial nuclear program or destabilizing proxy battles, contains more dangerous national security threats for Turkey. On the western front, the EU, Turkey's largest export market, is still suffering from the economic crisis, and Turkish exports to Europe are shrinking. Therefore, the threat level against Turkey from economic and political viewpoints has risen sharply and begs immediate attention and careful consideration of each and every step the government is about to take. Against this background, one could expect Erdoğan to reduce the fever in domestic politics by adopting a conciliatory tone and softer rhetoric. Instead, he chose to play risky brinksmanship politics that may backfire on him. He may be banking on the lack of a strong opposition in Turkey that would appeal to the disenfranchised groups that may wish to take their business elsewhere and join a new political bloc. That may be true, and the AK Party can sustain its position for a while, but it won't be too long before someone comes into the picture to harvest this fertile political ground of disenfranchised youth and alienated voters. Eventually, Erdoğan's confrontational policy may backfire on him, costing his party and the country if instability ensues. Turkish political history is full of examples of politicians who grossly miscalculated the public reaction to their intemperate decisions.